Orioles Hoping For Repeat Magic In 2013 - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Orioles Hoping For Repeat Magic In 2013 Stuck

Posted on February 19, 2013 at 08:03 AM.

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The 2012 Baltimore Orioles were one of the best stories in the game. It seems like every season there is a team that surprises. The Orioles were that team, even more so than the Oakland A�s because the A�s at least had promising young pitchers to build around. The Orioles entered the 2012 season as the least talented team in the division and a virtual lock to finish in last place. Instead, they won 93 games, finished second in the division, won the Wildcard game over the Texas Rangers and pushed the Yankees to five games in the Division Series.

In order for that magical season to happen, things have to break right. The Orioles had that happen for them. The Red Sox imploded. The Blue Jays lost just about every starting pitcher in their rotation and finished the season without Jose Bautista. The rough and tough American League East really became a three team race quite early. While the Orioles have made a habit of getting off to a good start in recent years, their good start in 2012 meant more with the two other teams faltering badly. As they struggled through June and July, the Red Sox and Blue Jays faded. Then, they got hot in August and September, which coincided with the Yankees� slide. Their timing was impeccable.

The magic kept on going as the Orioles won 29 of 38 one run games, which really is something of an anomaly. No team plays .763 baseball in one run contests. That record is clearly an indication of just how productive the bullpen was. The group led by closer Jim Johnson and Pedro Strop posted a 32-11 record along with a 3.00 ERA, which ranked them second behind the Rays for bullpen ERA. Johnson was 51 of 54 in save opportunities, while the entire bullpen gave up just 0.79 HR/9 and just 2.87 BB/9. The bullpen was near flawless considering the group struck out just 7.49 batters per nine innings, which ranked 13th in the AL.

That bullpen magic helped compensate for a rotation that had just one pitcher throw over 133 innings and make more than 20 starts. 12 different pitchers made starts for the Orioles in 2012. That is a number that usually coincides with a 100 loss team. And, when some of the names read like Randy Wolf, Miguel Gonzalez, Steve Johnson, Dana Eveland, and Tommy Hunter, there shouldn�t any sign of a 93 win team. But, the Orioles were able to mix and match with Wei-Yin Chen anchoring the staff with Jason Hammel, Chris Tillman, Joe Saunders, and getting an incredible run of success from Miguel Gonzalez. It is a credit to their pitching development system, both on the Major League level with Rick Adair and system wide with Pitching Coordinator Rick Peterson.

The offense was also magical as it received career seasons from Chris Davis and Adam Jones. While Jones is clearly on the rise, it was Davis who provided a .501 slugging percentage and became a consistent source of power for the first time in his career. Similar to the pitching staff, the Orioles had role players such as Nate Mclouth, Ryan Flaherty, and Lew Ford provide periods of above average play. With Matt Wieters an above average catcher, JJ Hardy providing elite level defense and good home run production, Nick Markakis becoming a viable leadoff hitter, and Mark Reynolds providing streaky power, the Orioles were able to rank second in the AL in home runs and sixth in slugging, despite finishing just ninth in runs scored and 11th in on base percentage.

On paper, none of the Orioles� 2012 success made much sense. But, 162 games are a litmus test for a team, which made the Orioles 2013 hot stove season even more interesting. General Manager Dan Duquette had a fabulous 2012 season with his under the radar moves. Signing Chen proved to be brilliant even though it was deadpanned around the league. His use of the waiver wire to plug holes on the roster were crucial to their success. His hiring of Rick Peterson to oversee the Minor League pitching development proved pivotal to the Orioles with the likes of Gonzalez, who was a Peterson suggestion, making a difference. And, his willingness to start Manny Machado�s free agent clock so that he could play third base showed that he was going to seize the opportunity.

It worked in 2012, but what would Duquette do for 2013? The Orioles can spend money just like the Blue Jays have this winter. There was a thought that Duquette would be in on the big names like Zack Greinke or Josh Hamilton. The Orioles weren�t really ever involved. That could be an indication of what Duquette really views the meaning of the 2012 season. Dan Duquette is one of the more astute men in Major League Baseball. He has built winners in Montreal and Boston. He�s changed the culture in Baltimore. But, if he really believed that the 2012 Orioles were really as good as their record indicated, he would�ve fortified them.

He didn�t. Instead, he re-signed Nate Mclouth, signed Alexi Casilla, Danny Valencia, and Jair Jurrjens. There wasn�t a trade, a major free agent signing, or even a flirtation with a big name. Instead, Duquette is going into the season with the same team that was successful last year. It may disappoint the fan base, but it was exactly the right move.

The 2012 Orioles are really similar to the 2009 Seattle Mariners, the first year that Jack Zduriencik took over. That Mariner team was supposed to lose, but they surprised and finished with 85 wins. That brought a sense that they were really close to winning, but the reality was that everything broke right for them. Their offensive inefficiencies didn�t manifest themselves that year. Despite being outscored by 52 runs, the Mariners were able to post a winning season because of their incredible 35-20 record in one run games. Instead of what was supposed to be a long rebuild, the Mariners played heavy on the free agent and trade markest for 2010. Unfortunately, their magic ran out and they finished with just 61 wins. Three years later, the Seattle rebuild project is nearly finished and they finally look like they might compete.

It would�ve been wrong for Duquette to spend heavily this winter. The Orioles just aren�t that good of a team. They weren�t supposed to be that good last year; everything went right for them. Can they expect it all to go perfectly right for 2013?

Statistically, the odds of playing over .700 in one run games is nearly impossible. They already did that once. And, that bullpen was very good last year despite the low strikeout total. For a team that isn�t great defensively, being dependent on fielding balls in later innings or high leverage situations isn�t the formula for sustained success. The strikeout isn�t everything, but the bullpen�s xFIP of 3.88 is far worse than their 3.00 ERA. If that .280 BABIP rises, more batted balls will find holes. Additionally, Orioles relievers worked 545.1 innings, the third most in the American League. The only two teams who had their relievers work more were the Twins and Royals. Can the Orioles relievers handle that workload again? Winning those late inning games and being so dependent on the bullpen should not yield the same results in 2013. Relievers are typically unreliable. The Orioles are returning their bullpen for another year.

The projected rotation of Chen, Hammel, Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, and Jurrjens is questionable. Can Chen have the same success? Jason Hammel had trouble making his starts last season and, despite a recent run of success, has a track record of being, at best, league average. Chris Tillman is promising entering his age 25 season. Of all the rotation members, Tillman is the one who has a ceiling that could see him as a high end starter. Gonzalez was phenomenal last season, but can he repeat a .260 BABIP and an 86 percent left on base rate? It doesn�t seem likely. As for Jurrjens, he hasn�t been healthy in two years and will be pitching the American League East.

The Orioles will have to hope for Tillman to evolve, Chen to repeat success, and for Hammel to be league average. Then, they will hope that the remaining candidates or names such as Tsuyoshi Wada (coming off of Tommy John Surgery), Zach Britton or Jake Arrieta can make good on their promise. Of course, Dylan Bundy is looming as the best pitching prospect in the sport. Once again, they will have to play the mix and match game. Can the magic strike again?

On offense, Adam Jones finally fulfilled his great promise by hitting .287/.334/.505 with 39 doubles, 32 home runs, and 16 stolen bases. Entering his age 27 season, Jones is right in his prime, leaving him even more growth. That will help the offense. But, the rest of the lineup is limited. While they purged quite a bit of strikeouts by letting Mark Reynolds leave for Cleveland, the Orioles� offense will still be at the top of the leaderboards in whiffs. Chris Davis had his breakout year, but there are doubts he can repeat that. And, he led the team with 169 strikeouts. Wilson Betemit figures to share DH duties. His 27.4% strikeout rate was third highest on the team, behind Davis and Reynolds. While Reynolds won�t be there, Betemit will pick up more at bats.

Matt Wieters is one of the better offensive catchers in the sport and should improve a bit on his .249/.329/.435 season, but he is a defense first catcher. Brian Roberts is trying to come back from concussion symptoms at age 35. In his prime, he was one of the better second basemen in the game. At age 35 and essentially missing the past two seasons, he is difficult to project. Nick Markakis hasn�t taken that next step and has turned into a slightly above average hitter with little power. JJ Hardy is tremendous defensively, but his offense regressed last year. Entering his age 30 season, his prime seasons are quickly ending.

Manny Machado is seemingly getting the third base job at age 20, despite still looking raw as a hitter. His .262/.292/.445 performance as a 19 year old is promising. But, to expect anything more than a .250/.320/.420 season with 15 home runs is unrealistic. His power is not fully developed and he will have to display the patience he showed in double-A rather than his short sample as a Major Leaguer. The future is bright for Machado, perhaps even superstar level bright. But, it would be shocking if 2013 was the start of stardom.

With so many questions--the same questions they had last season--it is difficult to see the Orioles repeating their 93 win season. They didn�t improve their team this winter; there isn�t enough high end talent to expect much growth. They have many players returning who had magical results last season. Magic isn�t infinite. And, their elite young talent is still a bit away from truly being ready.

And, the rest of the division is improved. The Yankees are still a favorite. The Rays still have the best rotation in the division. The Red Sox are greatly improved. And, the Blue Jays completely remodeled themselves into a legitimate contender. That leaves the Orioles in the same position as they were last spring. Everything has to break right for them. This year, it doesn�t look like it will. Dan Duquette wisely saved his money. He wisely just returned his team for 2013 and will continue to see which pieces fit for the long term around Jones, Machado, Tillman, and Bundy. He didn�t trade his young talent for a veteran starter in the hopes of contending because he likely knows just how lucky the Orioles were in 2012.

Can they repeat? There is always a chance. But, there are just so many issues that have to right again. They are the least talented team in the division and will now play a season in which every team will view them as a playoff team.

There are also cracks in the foundation of that 2012 success that may submarine the 2013 season. When Buck Showalter was asked at the Winter Meetings about Rick Peterson�s contributions to the pitching development, he smirked at the local beat writers and began to praise his Major League Coach, Rick Adair for his work despite the fact that each pitcher who was sent to the Minors came back better. Showalter concluded his snarky response with a shot at Peterson, who is quite popular with the press, �I can tell you this. Rick Adair isn�t calling a press conference after his pitcher throws a shutout.�

If there is a rift between the Showalter/Adair tandem in terms of working with Peterson, who was a Duquette hire, there is a problem. If there isn�t continuity between the Major League level and Minor League level, the idea of pitchers overachieving for a second consecutive season seems remote. It all worked well in 2012, but Showalter�s response showed that the organizational plan and commitment to biomechanics and Peterson may be limited to the General Manager�s office.

With a more difficult division, the same team returning, and with much having to go exactly right once again, the Orioles look like a team that could head back to the basement of the American League East. And, it seems that their General Manager could see this and wisely chose to continue to quietly build the system. For 2013, that looks to be a big step backwards. For the long term health of the organization, it is the best decision.

Meaningless prediction: Orioles finish 75-87, fifth in AL East.

Sound off OS: Where do the Orioles finish in 2013?

Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports. He also writes at FullCountPitch.com. Join the conversation on twitter @garyarmida.

Comments

# 1 Shaffer26 @ Feb 19

I am surprised that the O's front office has yet to really enhance their chances of repeating last year's success. Let's be honest, last year was probably a fluke. I really feel like they had a shot at signing some quality free agents to bulk up and truly compete where there are more wild card spots than ever. This off-season has been a disappoint for the Orioles, which sucks because baseball is better when the O's are thriving.